Journal of Plankton Research, Vol 21, 1691-1724, Copyright © 1999 by Oxford University Press
E Plaganyi, L Hutchings, J Field and H Verheye
A simple population dynamics model was constructed to simulate temporal
variability in the biomass of a dominant copepod Calanoides
carinatus (Copepoda: Calanoida) along the West Coast region of
South Africa. Calanoides carinatus is extensively
preyed upon by the commercially important anchovy Engraulis
capensis, thus variability in zooplankton production may serve
as a useful predictor of variability in anchovy recruitment levels. The
model developed here circumvents the need to include a large number of
parameters because it uses satellite-derived estimates of chlorophyll
a concentration and sea surface temperature as primary
inputs. Abundance estimates necessary to initialize the model are readily
obtainable from biannual research cruises. The model successfully simulates
observed features of a copepod population's response to pulses of upwelling
and is robust with respect to most of its parameters because minor changes
in their values result in predictable changes in model output. The model
showed greatest sensitivity to parameters that are difficult to determine
empirically, such as predator-induced mortality rates. Gaps in our present
understanding of the nature and scale of processes affecting copepod egg
abundance, survival and viability in the southern Benguela system were
identified as the dominant impediment to simulating copepod population
dynamics in the region.
ORIGINAL ARTICLES
A model of copepod population dynamics in the southern Benguela upwelling region
Marine Biology, Research Institute, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7702, South Africa; Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Private Bag X2, Rogge Bay 8012, South Africa; Present address: Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
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